Estimation of the failure probability of an integrated energy system based on the first order reliability method

被引：39

作者：

Fu, Xueqian ^{[1
]}

Guo, Qinglai ^{[1
]}

Sun, Hongbin ^{[1
,4
]}

Zhang, Xiurong ^{[2
]}

Wang, Li ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Tsinghua Univ, State Key Lab Elect Syst, Dept Elect Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China

[2] Beihang Univ, Sch Elect & Informat Engn, Beijing, Peoples R China

[3] Guangzhou Power Supply Co Ltd, Guangzhou, Guangdong, Peoples R China

[4] Tsinghua Univ, Rm 3-120,West Main Bldg, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China

来源：

ENERGY | 2017年 / 134卷

基金：

中国博士后科学基金; 中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Failure probability; Hasofer-Lind reliability; Integrated energy system; Nataf transformation; HEATING-SYSTEMS; FLOW ANALYSIS; ELECTRICITY; POWER; OPTIMIZATION; FLEXIBILITY; UNCERTAINTY; ALLOCATION; DISPATCH; INTERVAL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.090

中图分类号：

O414.1 [热力学];

学科分类号：

摘要：

In this paper, we investigate the impacts of intermittent renewable energy sources (RESs) and stochastic energy loads on the operation and uncertainties of an integrated energy system (IES). In our analysis, we use a first order reliability method (FORM) to estimate the failure probabilities, which are crucial for ensuring the reliability of the gas supply and surplus power absorption. The Hasofer Lind and Rackwitz Fiessler (HLRF) algorithm is introduced to solve the FORM optimization model while considering the stochastic behaviours and dependencies of multiple energy sources. A mathematical case is presented to demonstrate the use of the FORM in the estimation of failure probability, and the results are validated using the Latin hypercube sampling theories, including the Iman and Stein methods. The results of a failure probability analysis for an ideal IES are provided to illustrate the proposed technique. The failure probability can be used to improve IES operation and planning and ensure better reliability. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：1068 / 1078

页数：11

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