Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector

被引:13
作者
Foley, A. M. [1 ,4 ]
Holden, P. B. [2 ]
Edwards, N. R. [2 ]
Mercure, J. -F. [1 ,5 ]
Salas, P. [1 ]
Pollitt, H. [3 ]
Chewpreecha, U. [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Cambridge, Dept Land Econ, Cambridge Ctr Climate Change Mitigat Res, 19 Silver St, Cambridge CB3 9EP, England
[2] Open Univ, Environm Earth & Ecosyst, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, Bucks, England
[3] Cambridge Econometr Ltd, Covent Garden, Cambridge CB1 2HT, England
[4] Univ London, Dept Geog Environm & Dev Studies, 32 Tavistock Sq, London WC1H 9EZ, England
[5] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Dept Environm Sci, NL-6525 ED Nijmegen, Netherlands
基金
英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;
关键词
CARBON-CYCLE FEEDBACK; SEA-ICE; PROJECTIONS; UNCERTAINTY; IMPACTS; OCEAN; GENERATION; SCENARIOS; ENSEMBLE; CMIP5;
D O I
10.5194/esd-7-119-2016
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
We present a carbon-cycle-climate modelling framework using model emulation, designed for integrated assessment modelling, which introduces a new emulator of the carbon cycle (GENIEem). We demonstrate that GENIEem successfully reproduces the CO2 concentrations of the Representative Concentration Pathways when forced with the corresponding CO2 emissions and non-CO2 forcing. To demonstrate its application as part of the integrated assessment framework, we use GENIEem along with an emulator of the climate (PLASIM-ENTSem) to evaluate global CO2 concentration levels and spatial temperature and precipitation response patterns resulting from CO2 emission scenarios. These scenarios are modelled using a macroeconometric model (E3MG) coupled to a model of technology substitution dynamics (FTT), and represent different emissions reduction policies applied solely in the electricity sector, without mitigation in the rest of the economy. The effect of cascading uncertainty is apparent, but despite uncertainties, it is clear that in all scenarios, global mean temperatures in excess of 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels are projected by the end of the century. Our approach also highlights the regional temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the global mean temperature change occurring in these scenarios, enabling more robust impacts modelling and emphasizing the necessity of focusing on spatial patterns in addition to global mean temperature change.
引用
收藏
页码:119 / 132
页数:14
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