Assessing exchange rate sensitivity of bilateral agricultural trade for the Visegrad countries

This article examines the short- and long-term effects of exchange rate changes on bilateral agricultural foreign trade for the Visegrad countries. Data used in this study covered the period from 1999: Q1 to 2014: Q3 and were based on the Standard International Trade Classification. To distinguish the long-term effects from the short-term ones, the J-curve theory was applied. A Johansen cointegration test and a vector error correction model were also used. The analyses showed that food, live animals, beverages and tobacco commodities were significantly connected with exchange rate movements in the long term. The effects of currency depreciation were ambiguous. However, an improvement in particular trade balances was observed in most cases following currency depreciation. The J-curve pattern was confirmed only for the Czech Republic in the trade of food and live animals with Italy and Poland and for Hungary in the trade of beverages and tobacco with Italy.