Estimating the survival of elderly patients diagnosed with dementia in Taiwan: A longitudinal study

Background Dementia is characterized by prolonged progressive disability. Therefore, predicting mortality is difficult. An accurate prediction tool may be useful to ensure that end-of-life patients with dementia receive timely palliative care. Purpose This study aims to establish a survival prediction model for elderly patients with dementia in Taiwan. Methods Data from the 2001 to 2010 National Health Insurance Research Database in Taiwan were used to identify 37,289 patients with dementia aged >= 65 years for inclusion in this retrospective longitudinal study. Moreover, this study examined the mortality indicators for dementia among demographic characteristics, chronic physical comorbidities, and medical procedures. A Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates was used to estimate mortality risk, and risk score functions were formulated using a point system to establish a survival prediction model. The prediction model was then tested using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results Thirteen mortality risk factors were identified: age, sex, stroke, chronic renal failure, liver cirrhosis, cancer, pressure injury, and retrospectively retrieved factors occurring in the 6 months before death, including nasogastric tube placement, supplemental oxygen supply, >= 2 hospitalization, receiving >= 1 emergency services, >= 2 occurrences of cardiopulmonary resuscitation, and receiving >= 2 endotracheal intubations. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for this prediction model for mortality at 6 and 12 months were 0.726 and 0.733, respectively. Conclusions The survival prediction model demonstrated moderate accuracy for predicting mortality at 6 and 12 months before death in elderly patients with dementia. This tool may be valuable for helping health care providers and family caregivers to make end-of-life care decisions.