Predicting the Risk for Hospital-Acquired Pressure Ulcers in Critical Care Patients

Background Assessments of risk for pressure ulcers in critical care patients may not include important predictors. Objective To construct risk-prediction models of hospital-acquired pressure ulcers in intensive care patients and compare the models' predictive validities with validity of the Braden Scale. Methods Data were collected retrospectively on patients admitted to intensive care from October 2011 through October 2013. Logistic regression and decision trees were used to construct the risk-prediction models. Predictive validity was measured by using sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and area under the curve. Results With logistic regression analysis, 6 factors were significant independent predictors. With the decision tree, 4 types of high-risk populations were identified. Predictive validity of Braden Scale scores was lower than the validities of the logistic regression and the decision tree models. Conclusion Risk for hospital-acquired pressure ulcers is overpredicted with the Braden Scale, with low specificity and low positive predictive value.