Drought-induced spatio-temporal synchrony of plague outbreak in Europe

被引:14
|
作者
Yue, Ricci P. H. [1 ]
Lee, Harry F. [1 ]
机构
[1] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Geog & Resource Management, Shatin, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
关键词
Drought; Europe; Plague; Rodent-borne disease; Synchrony; Spatio-temporal analysis; PRAIRIE DOGS CYNOMYS; POPULATION-DYNAMICS; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; SPATIAL SYNCHRONY; RODENT OUTBREAKS; PRECIPITATION; HISTORY; DRIVEN; AUSTRALIA; PATTERN;
D O I
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134138
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Plague synchronously swept across separated regions in Europe throughout history. However, the spatiotemporal synchrony of plague and its driving mechanism have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we transformed the historical European plague database spanned 1347-1800 CE into country-level time-series that differentiated large-scale plague outbreak from counted data. We found that there are 74 years in which two or more countries in our study region (UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy) experienced large-scale plague outbreak in the same year. Our Multivariate Ripley's K-function results showed that the onset year and the cessation year of large-scale plague outbreak arc synchronized at the 0-23-year and 0-20-year windows, respectively. The temporal association between such synchrony and climatic forcing was further investigated using the Superposed Epoch Analysis, and drought was found to be responsible for the synchrony. Integrating our results with a literature survey, we suggested that prior to the peak of plague, the occurrence of drought and the subsequent reintroduced rainfall dampened both the rodent community and human society and boosted the number of fleas that carried plague. Such a synthesis facilitated the outbreak of plague. At the same time, high temperature associated with such drought also confined the geographic diffusion of the plague. Hence, although continental mega-drought could initiate the synchrony of plague outbreak, the synchrony actually consisted of a number of localized plague outbreak events scattering across different regions in Europe. According to the projected rising trend of drought in terms of its magnitude, duration, and geographic extent, the risk of synchrony of rodent-borne diseases in Europe will be significantly elevated, especially in France, Italy, and Spain. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页数:11
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [41] Spatio-Temporal Synchrony of Influenza in Cities across Israel: The "Israel Is One City'' Hypothesis
    Barnea, Oren
    Huppert, Amit
    Katriel, Guy
    Stone, Lewi
    PLOS ONE, 2014, 9 (03):
  • [42] Spatio-temporal variations in meteorology drought over the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam in the recent decades
    Lee, Seung Kyu
    Truong An Dang
    PADDY AND WATER ENVIRONMENT, 2019, 17 (01) : 35 - 44
  • [43] Reduction of Errors in Hydrological Drought Monitoring – A Novel Statistical Framework for Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Drought
    Zulfiqar Ali
    Asad Ellahi
    Ijaz Hussain
    Amna Nazeer
    Sadia Qamar
    Guangheng Ni
    Muhammad Faisal
    Water Resources Management, 2021, 35 : 4363 - 4380
  • [44] Spatio-Temporal Variation of Precipitation and Evaporation on the Tibetan Plateau and Their Influence on Regional Drought
    Tang, Yuanzhi
    Huo, Junjun
    Zhu, Dejun
    Gao, Tailai
    Jiang, Xiaoxuan
    ATMOSPHERE, 2022, 13 (08)
  • [45] Spatio-temporal variations in the application of the Braun-Blanquet approach in Europe
    Guarino, Riccardo
    Willner, Wolfgang
    Pignatti, Sandro
    Attorre, Fabio
    Loidi, Javier J.
    PHYTOCOENOLOGIA, 2018, 48 (02) : 239 - 250
  • [46] Linking annual variations of roe deer bag records to large-scale winter conditions: spatio-temporal development in Europe between 1961 and 2013
    Hagen, Robert
    Heurich, Marco
    Storch, Ilse
    Hanewinkel, Marc
    Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie
    EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE RESEARCH, 2017, 63 (06)
  • [47] Spatio-temporal analysis of maximum drought severity using Copulas in Northern Algeria
    Mellak, Soumia
    Souag-Gamane, Doudja
    JOURNAL OF WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE, 2020, 11 (11) : 68 - 84
  • [48] Spatio-Temporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index
    Jamro, Shoaib
    Dars, Ghulam Hussain
    Ansari, Kamran
    Krakauer, Nir Y.
    APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL, 2019, 9 (21):
  • [49] Spatio-temporal variability of precipitation, temperature and agricultural drought indices in Central Italy
    Vergni, L.
    Todisco, F.
    AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST METEOROLOGY, 2011, 151 (03) : 301 - 313
  • [50] Spatio-temporal Changes and Frequency Analysis of Drought in the Wei River Basin, China
    Shengzhi Huang
    Jianxia Chang
    Qiang Huang
    Yutong Chen
    Water Resources Management, 2014, 28 : 3095 - 3110