Year-2020 Global Distribution and Pathways of Reservoir Methane and Carbon Dioxide Emissions According to the Greenhouse Gas From Reservoirs (G-res) Model

Collectively, reservoirs constitute a significant global source of C-based greenhouse gases (GHGs). Yet, global estimates of reservoir carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions remain uncertain, varying more than four-fold in recent analyses. Here we present results from a global application of the Greenhouse Gas from Reservoirs (G-res) model wherein we estimate per-area and per-reservoir CO2 and CH4 fluxes, by specific flux pathway and in a spatially and temporally explicit manner, as a function of reservoir characteristics. We show: (a) CH4 fluxes via degassing and ebullition are much larger than previously recognized and diffusive CH4 fluxes are lower than previously estimated, while CO2 emissions are similar to those reported in past work; (b) per-area reservoir GHG fluxes are >29% higher than suggested by previous studies, due in large part to our novel inclusion of the degassing flux in our global estimate; (c) CO2 flux is the dominant emissions pathway in boreal regions and CH4 degassing and ebullition are dominant in tropical and subtropical regions, with the highest overall reservoir GHG fluxes in the tropics and subtropics; and (d) reservoir GHG fluxes are quite sensitive to input parameters that are both poorly constrained and likely to be strongly influenced by climate change in coming decades (parameters such as temperature and littoral area, where the latter may be expanded by deepening thermoclines expected to accompany warming surface waters). Together these results highlight a critical need to both better understand climate-related drivers of GHG emission and to better quantify GHG emissions via CH4 ebullition and degassing.