A comparison of three scoring systems for predicting complications after major lung resection

Objectives: Although complications occur frequently after major lung resection, current predictive models are not entirely satisfactory. We devised a new predictive scoring system and compared it to two existing systems. Methods: We performed an initial retrospective review of 400 patients who underwent major resection for lung cancer from 1980 to 1995. Predictive covariates (age, spirometry, diffusing capacity) associated with three or more complication groups were used to develop a scoring system. This system (EVAD) was then evaluated against the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality and Morbidity (POSSUM) and Cardiopulmonary Risk Index (CPRI) systems for patients operated between 1996 and 2001. Results: Major resection for lung cancer included lobectomy (188) and pneumonectomy (30). Complication categories were: pulmonary (23; 10.5%); cardiovascular (24; 11.0%); infectious (8; 3.6%); other (29; 13.2%); nonfatal (45; 20.6%); and any (53; 24.2%). Death occurred in ten patients (4.6%). Mean EVAD scores were significantly different between groups with and without complications in all categories except infectious complications and death, whereas mean CPRI scores differed only for pulmonary complications, nonfatal complications, and death, and mean POSSUM scores did not appropriately differ for any complications. EVAD predicted incremental risk in all complication categories except cardiovascular, infectious, and death, whereas CPRI predicted incremental risk only for nonfatal and possibly any complications, and POSSUM did not predict incremental risk for any complication category. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated the EVAD system to be equivalent to or better than CPRI and POSSUM for all complication categories. Conclusions: A simple scoring system (EVAD) that utilizes pulmonary function test data and patient age predicts the likelihood of complications after major lung resection. It is easier to use and at least as accurate as other scoring systems currently in use. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.