Robust out-of-sample inference

被引：99

作者：

McCracken, MW ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Louisiana State Univ, Dept Econ, Baton Rouge, LA 70803 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS | 2000年 / 99卷 / 02期

关键词：

forecasting; forecast evaluation; hypothesis resting; model comparison;

D O I：

10.1016/S0304-4076(00)00022-1

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper presents analytical, empirical and simulation results concerning inference about the moments of nondifferentiable functions of out-of-sample forecasts and forecast errors. Special attention is given to the measurement of a model's predictive ability using the test of equal mean absolute error. Tests for equal mean absolute error and mean square error are used to evaluate predictions of excess returns to the S & P 500 composite. Simulations indicate that appropriately constructed tests for equal mean absolute error can provide more accurately sized and more powerful tests than inappropriately constructed tests for equal mean absolute error and mean square error. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved. JEL classification: C52; C53; C32; C12.

引用

页码：195 / 223

页数：29

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