Convex Model for Earthquake Damage and Loss Estimation of Individual Buildings

Probabilistic results drawn upon inadequate information are suspicious. The convex set theory, which requires much less information, is employed to model the uncertainties of the spectral displacement and damage state medians. Furthermore, a convex model of fragility function is established based on the Envelope Bound Convex Models of the spectral displacement and damage state medians. A bound loss estimation method is derived by integrating HAZUS-AEBM module with the convex set theory. The loss bounds of a hotel in southern China are obtained and compared to the loss calculated by HAZUS-AEBM method, which locates in the lower half interval of convex analysis results. The uncertainty propagation is analyzed and damage state medians are found to be most critical factor to the loss. Finally, the PEER's probabilistic loss estimation methodology is also applied to this example to deduce the probability of loss exceeding the bound values of convex analysis results.