Ensembles and probabilities: a new era in the prediction of climate change

被引：134

作者：

Collins, Mat ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Hadley Ctr, Meteorol Off, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England

来源：

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES | 2007年 / 365卷 / 1857期

关键词：

climate change; prediction; uncertainty; probability;

D O I：

10.1098/rsta.2007.2068

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Predictions of future climate are of central importance in determining actions to adapt to the impacts of climate change and in formulating targets to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. In the absence of analogues of the future, physically based numerical climate models must be used to make predictions. New approaches are under development to deal with a number of sources of uncertainty that arise in the prediction process. This paper introduces some of the concepts and issues in these new approaches, which are discussed in more detail in the papers contained in this issue.

引用

页码：1957 / 1970

页数：14

共 14 条

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PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 2007, 365 (1857) :2077-2088

[2] Probabilistic climate forecasts and inductive problems [J].

Frame, D. J. ;

Faull, N. E. ;

Joshi, M. M. ;

Allen, M. R. .

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 2007, 365 (1857) :1971-1992

[3] Ensemble climate simulations using a fully coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere general circulation model [J].

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Cubasch, U. ;

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Fast, I. ;

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PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 2007, 365 (1857) :2089-2101

[4] Probabilistic climate change predictions applying Bayesian model averaging [J].

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Simonis, Daniel ;

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PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 2007, 365 (1857) :2103-2116

[5] A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles [J].

Murphy, J. M. ;

Booth, B. B. B. ;

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Harris, G. R. ;

Sexton, D. M. H. ;

Webb, M. J. .

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 2007, 365 (1857) :1993-2028

[6] Challenges in using probabilistic climate change information for impact assessments: an example from the water sector [J].

New, Mark ;

Lopez, Ana ;

Dessai, Suraje ;

Wilby, Rob .

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 2007, 365 (1857) :2117-2131

[7]

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GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2005, 32 (23) :1-5

[9] Inference in ensemble experiments [J].

Rougier, Jonathan ;

Sexton, David M. H. .

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 2007, 365 (1857) :2133-2143

[10] Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions [J].

Stainforth, D. A. ;

Allen, M. R. ;

Tredger, E. R. ;

Smith, L. A. .

PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY A-MATHEMATICAL PHYSICAL AND ENGINEERING SCIENCES, 2007, 365 (1857) :2145-2161

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