Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast

Understanding the response of tropical cyclones and inundation to sea surface temperature (SST) warming and sea-level rise (SLR) is a substantial topic of science and engineering. A coupled atmospheric WRF model and hydrodynamic ADCIRC model are utilized to determine the impacts of increasing SST and rising sea level on two typhoon tracks, wind fields, and associated inundation. The reliable performance of established models is confirmed against available measurements during the typhoon Matsa (2005) and Chan-hom (2015) period. Validated models are then simulated with increasing several SST and SLR scenarios. Through comparing simulation results obtained with the base case and various climate change scenarios, it is found that sea surface warming results in apparent typhoon intensification and variation of the wind fields. Meanwhile, both SST warming and SLR can make a difference to typhoon-induced inundation, while SLR has a greater influence than SST warming. Furthermore, SST warming accompanying with SLR can lead to a substantial expansion of the inundated regions induced by both typhoons. The influence increases with larger changes in SST and SLR, and the extent of the influence is different between the selected two typhoons. Knowledge of the potential higher levels of tropical cyclone hazard can be of great benefit to the development of coastal disaster prevention and mitigation engineering.