Dynamic risk analysis of offshore natural gas hydrates depressurization production test based on fuzzy CREAM and DBN-GO combined method

被引：15

作者：

Wang, Chuan ^{[1
,2
]}

Liu, Yupeng ^{[1
,2
]}

Yu, Chao ^{[3
]}

Zheng, Yuyan ^{[4
]}

Wang, Guorong ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Southwest Petr Univ, Sch Mechatron Engn, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, Peoples R China

[2] Southwest Petr Univ, Energy Equipment Res Inst, Chengdu 610500, Sichuan, Peoples R China

[3] CETS LTD, Oil Prod Serv Co, Tianjin 300457, Peoples R China

[4] Sichuan Fanhua Aviat Instrument & Elect Factory, Chengdu 610000, Sichuan, Peoples R China

来源：

JOURNAL OF NATURAL GAS SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING | 2021年 / 91卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Hydrates depressurization production; Hydrate secondary formation; Dynamic risk; Dynamic bayesian network; GO methodology; Fuzzy CREAM; RELIABILITY-ANALYSIS; MODEL;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jngse.2021.103961

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

Preventing the secondary formation of natural gas hydrates is one of the key factors for the success of offshore natural gas hydrates production test. In this paper, according to the operational process of preventing the secondary formation of natural gas hydrates, the GO method model of the offshore natural gas hydrates depressurization production test process was established by using the DBN and the GO (DBN-GO) model, and it was mapped into the DBN model. Considering the influence of human factors in the operation process, the human reliability was modeled and analyzed by using combined weight method and fuzzy CREAM. In this paper, the performance of the equipment, operational risk and probability of hydrate secondary formation were analyzed. And the DBN model is verified by Petri net.

引用

页数：14