Time preferences and overconfident beliefs: Evidence from germany

被引：0

作者：

Friehe, Tim ^{[1
,2
]}

Pannenberg, Markus ^{[3
,4
,5
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Marburg, Publ Econ Grp, Plan 2, D-35037 Marburg, Germany

[2] CESifo, Munich, Germany

[3] Univ Appl Sci Bielefeld, Dept Business & Econ, Interakt 1, D-33619 Bielefeld, Germany

[4] IZA, Bonn, Germany

[5] GLO, Maastricht, Netherlands

来源：

JOURNAL OF BEHAVIORAL AND EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS | 2021年 / 92卷

关键词：

Confidence; Beliefs; Time preferences; Wage distribution; Wage; Germany; SOEP; EXPECTATIONS; RISK; CONSUMPTION; INFORMATION; ECONOMICS; DEMAND; BIAS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.socec.2020.101651

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This paper investigates if and how time preferences are related to beliefs regarding one's own future outcomes. We measure overconfident beliefs using the difference between an individual's expected position and their observed percentile in the distribution of monthly gross wages one year after our survey. Our regression exercises link this bias measure to information about patience, conditioning on risk preferences, personality traits, cognitive ability, and the individual's socio-economic status. On average, we find that greater patience is associated with lower overplacement in the future distribution of individual monthly gross wages.

引用

页数：14

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