Reducing the uncertainty in subtropical cloud feedback

被引：95

作者：

Myers, Timothy A. ^{[1
,2
]}

Norris, Joel R. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif San Diego, Scripps Inst Oceanog, Inst Univ Europeen Mer UBO, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA

[2] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2016年 / 43卷 / 05期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

clouds; feedbacks; STRATOCUMULUS; TEMPERATURE; METEOROLOGY;

D O I：

10.1002/2015GL067416

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Large uncertainty remains on how subtropical clouds will respond to anthropogenic climate change and therefore whether they will act as a positive feedback that amplifies global warming or negative feedback that dampens global warming by altering Earth's energy budget. Here we reduce this uncertainty using an observationally constrained formulation of the response of subtropical clouds to greenhouse forcing. The observed interannual sensitivity of cloud solar reflection to varying meteorological conditions suggests that increasing sea surface temperature and atmospheric stability in the future climate will have largely canceling effects on subtropical cloudiness, overall leading to a weak positive shortwave cloud feedback (0.40.9Wm(-2)K(-1)). The uncertainty of this observationally based approximation of the cloud feedback is narrower than the intermodel spread of the feedback produced by climate models. Subtropical cloud changes will therefore complement positive cloud feedbacks identified by previous work, suggesting that future global cloud changes will amplify global warming.

引用

页码：2144 / 2148

页数：5

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