A Study of Peak CO2 Emission Model on Regional Energy Consumption

Thermal power generation and heating account for 44% of total CO2 emissions from energy-related activities. Therefore, it is particularly critical to achieve peak CO2 emissions in electricity generation as soon as possible. This study is aimed at modeling peak CO2 emissions from energy and electric power with power development planning and historical energy consumption data in Hangzhou, Zhejiang. The model is based on computation of CO2 emissions from coal, oil, natural gas and electricity. First, current status of energy production and consumption as well as related CO2 emissions in Hangzhou, Zhejiang are investigated. Secondly, model to forecast peak CO2 emissions in electric power is established with consideration of power generation planning, local Solar PV planning, proportion of renewable allocation electricity from other provinces, alternative energy, and installed capacity of energy storage. Finally, combined with forecast of peak CO2 emissions in electric power, forecast of peak CO2 emissions in energy is also performed considering GDP, population, energy structure, industrial structure and total energy consumption. With the forecast result, it is aimed to offer an approach in reduction of total energy-related CO2 emissions.