Forecasting Fine-Grained Air Quality Based on Big Data

In this paper, we forecast the reading of an air quality monitoring station over the next 48 hours, using a data-driven method that considers current meteorological data, weather forecasts, and air quality data of the station and that of other stations within a few hundred kilometers. Our predictive model is comprised of four major components: 1) a linear regression-based temporal predictor to model the local factors of air quality, 2) a neural network-based spatial predictor to model global factors, 3) a dynamic aggregator combining the predictions of the spatial and temporal predictors according to meteorological data, and 4) an inflection predictor to capture sudden changes in air quality. We evaluate our model with data from 43 cities in China, surpassing the results of multiple baseline methods. We have deployed a system with the Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection, providing 48-hour fine-grained air quality forecasts for four major Chinese cities every hour. The forecast function is also enabled on Microsoft Bing Map and MS cloud platform Azure. Our technology is general and can be applied globally for other cities.