Offshore wind energy potential estimation using UPSCALE climate data

Offshore and near-shore wind energy is one of the major renewable energy resources, which already make a substantial contribution to the energy supply in Europe. Nevertheless, development is still in the start-up phase, with new projects being planned and implemented continuously. This development needs to be informed, to enable deployment at the most suitable/ideal locations. However, in order to predict the potential energy yield, forecasts have to be made. In this paper the authors present a scoping study. This study uses high-resolution climate data to predict wind speeds at various heights, and various locations along the coast of Mexico. Several techniques for wind extrapolation are explored, alongside a new method based on data analysis. The results show clearly a strong sensitivity to the method chosen, and results have to be interpreted accordingly. Also, the impact of water vapor is shown, using a method that predicts the moist air density at the hub height. The paper indicates that valuable information can be gained from the analyses undertaken, prior to embarking on detailed, targeted studies. The paper concludes with recommendations for further work.