Demographic processes in a model of innovation diffusion with a dynamic market

被引：31

作者：

Centrone, Francesca ^{[1
]}

Goia, Aldo ^{[1
]}

Salinelli, Ernesto ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Piemonte Orientale, Dipartimento Sci Econ & Metodi Quantitat, I-28100 Novara, Italy

来源：

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE | 2007年 / 74卷 / 03期

关键词：

innovation diffusion; demography; dynamic market; relative sales;

D O I：

10.1016/j.techfore.2006.02.006

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

In this paper we study a binomial innovation diffusion model for a variable size market by modelling the demographic process of entrance-exit from each market compartment. We examine from a theoretical point of view the effect of the simultaneous presence of economic and demographic parameters under the exponential market growth hypothesis, by presenting some general results on the adoptions and sales time path. We also enlighten the relevance of considering these variables in relative terms and show how, in presence of a dynamic, the diffusion process never saturates the market. Finally, we test our model on a data set for cellular phones market in different countries. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：247 / 266

页数：20

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