DYNAMIC MODELING OF BEHAVIOR CHANGE

We consider a conceptual and quantitative modeling approach for investigating dynamic behavior change. While the approach is applicable to behavior change in eating disorders, smoking, substance abuse and other behavioral disorders, here we present our novel dynamical systems modeling approach to understand the processes governing an individual's behavior in the context of problem drinking. Recent advances in technology have resulted in large intensive longitudinal data sets which are particularly well suited for study within such frameworks. However, the lack of previous work in this area (specifically, on the inter-and intra-personal factors governing the drinking behavior of individuals) renders this a daunting and unique challenge. As a result, issues which are typically routine in mathematical modeling require considerable effort such as the determination of key quantities of interest, and the timescale on which to represent them. We discuss the construction of an initial mathematical model for two starkly distinct individuals and make a case for the potential for such efforts to help in understanding the underlying mechanisms responsible for behavior change in problem drinkers.