Population policy dilemmas in Europe at the dawn of the twenty-first century

In his 1922 BOOK, The Decline of the West, the German historian Oswald Spengler ventured a long-range demographic prediction. In the unfolding final cycle of their civilization, he wrote, Europeans, as individuals, still set high store on life. But the collective continuity of populations was no longer valued. An appalling depopulation was beginning that would continue for centuries. The book in its time was highly influential; today it is largely forgotten. But current demographic changes in many countries, while still at the periphery of public consciousness, are bound to lend the issue of impending population decline a new urgency in the years to come. In Europe, which has been experiencing unprecedentedly low levels of fertility, these changes demand special attention. in what follows, I discuss political and social problems inherent in Europe's demographic predicament.