Statistical analysis of some factors affecting the number of horse births in France

Declarations of matings (535 746) and 308 549 consecutive declarations of birth from 1989 to 1999 were analysed by logistic regression in order to determine the effects of year, breed and age of parents on numerical productivity (the number of foals declared per mated mare per year). For the years 1994 to 1999, the status of the mare, type of mating and month of first mating, were also available. The effect of inbreeding and, for warm-blooded horses, the effect of the level of performances or the effect of the level of breeding value estimation were also analysed. The main results are the following: numerical productivity progressed in France more for draught breeds than for saddle breeds and trotters. Thoroughbreds progressed less and just reached the level of significance. Cold-blooded horses, however, appeared less productive than warm-blooded horses for which thoroughbreds were at the lower level. It cannot be concluded if this figure reveals biological differences in fertility or if it is only the result of differences in managing the official declarations. For warm-blooded horses, the absence of negative relationships between the trends of selection and numerical productivity results appeared clearly. A high performance level for the mare was positively associated with higher productivity results in sport and trotting horses and showed no significant influence for galloping horses. The relationships with breeding value estimation illustrated the same trends.