Do IMF fiscal forecasts add value?

被引：9

作者：

An, Zidong ^{[1
,3
]}

Jalles, Joao Tovar ^{[2
]}

Loungani, Prakash ^{[3
]}

Sousa, Ricardo M. ^{[4
,5
,6
]}

机构：

[1] Amer Univ, Coll Arts & Sci, Washington, DC 20016 USA

[2] Int Monetary Fund, Fiscal Affairs Dept, Washington, DC 20431 USA

[3] Int Monetary Fund, Res Dept, 700 19th St NW, Washington, DC 20431 USA

[4] Univ Minho, Dept Econ, Braga, Portugal

[5] Univ Minho, Econ Policies Res Unit NIPE, Braga, Portugal

[6] London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, LSE Alumni Assoc, London, England

来源：

JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 2018年 / 37卷 / 06期

关键词：

asymmetry; bias; budget balance; efficiency; forecast comparison; information rigidity; INFORMATION; EFFICIENCY;

D O I：

10.1002/for.2527

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We used a panel of 29 advanced and emerging market countries to investigate whether the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) fiscal forecasts add value in terms of forecast accuracy and information content, relative to private sector forecasts (from Consensus Economics). We find that: (i) WEO forecasts are not significantly less accurate than Consensus forecasts; (ii) WEO and Consensus forecasts tend to mutually encompass one another; and (iii) each source of forecasts appears to contain some information that is not embedded in the other source.

引用

页码：650 / 665

页数：16

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