Research on Airworthiness Certification Method Based on Simulation of Complex System and Extreme Value Theory

A new airworthiness certification method based on complex system simulation and Extreme Value Theory (EVT) is proposed. Airworthiness certification scenarios are set up based on airworthiness criterions and correlative materials. Using the non-linear-six-degree-of-freedom mathematical model of aircraft flight dynamics and pilot handling tactic model, the Pilot-Aircraft-Environment complex model is set up, in which effects of external operational environment (wind shear, turbulence, icing, wet runway, etc) are considered. Flight hazard of certain scenario is analyzed, and reliability models of important system or subsystem are established. By the method of Monte-Carlo, samples of critical parameters' extreme values are obtained from random 'Pilot-Aircraft- Environment' dynamic simulation. Using Extreme Value Theory (EVT), the limited amount of samples are used to evaluate flight risk caused by system failure, and the airworthiness is certificated. An airworthiness clause in MIL-HDBK-516B is used as an example to validate the method's practicability.