EXPLORATION OF POTENTIAL ADAPTATION STRATEGIES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ZAYANDEH RUD IRRIGATION SYSTEM, IRAN

Potential negative impacts of climate change provide compelling arguments for action and adaptive measures to help mitigate pressure on water resources, agricultural production and environmental quality. To explore the possible impacts and evaluate the effectiveness of different adaptation strategies, an integrated modelling framework that allows linkage and integration of climate models, basin- and field-scale hydrological models is of great importance. This paper describes an assessment of climate change impacts on water resources, agriculture and the environment in the Zayandeh Rud irrigation system of Esfahan (Iran) using simulation models. The paper also focuses on alternative adaptation strategies to mitigate the negative impacts. Results of the simulations show that potential impact of climate change could cause the Zayandeh Rud irrigation system to face more frequent and severe water shortage problems. Among the evaluated adaptation strategies, change in cropping patterns was found to be the best possible measure to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. Results also show the capability of the modelling system to deliver the required simulations using readily available data. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.