Study on a prediction of P2P network loan default based on the machine learning LightGBM and XGboost algorithms according to different high dimensional data cleaning

被引:284
作者
Ma, Xiaojun [1 ]
Sha, Jinglan [1 ]
Wang, Dehua [2 ]
Yu, Yuanbo [3 ]
Yang, Qian [1 ]
Niu, Xueqi [1 ]
机构
[1] Dongbei Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Stat, Dalian 116025, Peoples R China
[2] Harbin Inst Technol, Shenzhen, Peoples R China
[3] Liaoning Univ, Asia Australia Business Coll, Shenyang 110136, Liaoning, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
P2P; Data cleaning; Default rate; LightGBM algorithm; XGboost algorithm;
D O I
10.1016/j.elerap.2018.08.002
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Big data and the Internet financial sector tremendously developed in the 21st century. The national emphasis on this field has also gradually improved. Peer-to-peer (P2P) is an innovative mode of borrowing that is a powerful complement to the traditional financial industry. The projected default rate on credit is an absolute prerequisite for guaranteeing the proper operation of related financial projects or platforms. In this paper, we use `multiobservation' and 'multi-dimensional' data cleaning method and apply the modern machine learning algorithms LightGBM in Asia at the end of 2016 and XGboost, which are based on real P2P transaction data from Lending club. The default risk of loans in the platform is strongly and innovatively predicted. And the results of different methods are compared. Furthermore, we observe that the LightGBM algorithm based on multiple observational data set classification prediction results is the best. The average performance rate of the historical transaction data of the Lending Club platform rose by 1.28 percentage points, which reduced loan defaults by approximately $117 million. Finally, with respect to the influencing factors of the default rate, suggested developments for the Lending club and other P2P platforms are provided as is the suggested direction of other countries' development in this field.
引用
收藏
页码:24 / 39
页数:16
相关论文
共 26 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], 2017, 31 C NEUR INF PROC S
[2]  
Chang Yi, 2015, CONSTRUCTION CREDIT
[3]  
Chen T, 2016, P ACM SIGKDD INT C K
[4]  
Cheng Chen, 2009, MANAGEMENT WORLD, P83
[5]  
Everett C. R, 2015, APPL ECON, V47, P54
[6]  
Freedman S., 2008, Do Social Networks Solve Information Problems for PeertoPeer Lending? Evidence from Prosper.com
[7]  
Freedman SM, 2011, 16855 NBER
[8]  
Herzenstein M., 2008, DEMOCRATIZATION PERS
[9]  
Iyer R., 2010, Screening in New Credit Markets: Can Individual Lenders Infer Borrower Creditworthiness in Peer-to-Peer Lending?
[10]  
Kang Weixun, 2016, RES ESTABLISHMENT CR