Frequency and initiation of debris flows in Grand Canyon, Arizona

Debris flows from 740 tributaries transport sediment into the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, Arizona, creating rapids that control its longitudinal profile. Debris flows mostly occur when runoff triggers failures in colluvium by a process termed "the fire hose effect.'' Debris flows originate from a limited number of geologic strata, almost exclusively shales or other clay-rich, fine-grained formations. Observations from 1984 through 2003 provide a 20 year record of all debris flows that reached the Colorado River in Grand Canyon, and repeat photography provides a 100 year record of debris flows from 147 tributaries. Observed frequencies are 5.1 events/year from 1984 to 2003, and historic frequencies are 5.0 events/year from 1890 to 1983. Logistic regression is used to model historic frequencies based on drainage basin parameters observed to control debris flow initiation and transport. From 5 to 7 of the 16 parameters evaluated are statistically significant, including drainage area, basin relief, and the height of and gradient below debris flow source areas, variables which reflect transport distance and potential energy. The aspect of the river channel, which at least partially reflects storm movement within the canyon, is also significant. Model results are used to calculate the probability of debris flow occurrence at the river over a century for all 740 tributaries. Owing to the variability of underlying geomorphic controls, the distribution of this probability is not uniform among tributaries of the Colorado River in Grand Canyon.