Reducing Added Sugars in the Food Supply Through a Cap-and-Trade Approach

Objectives. We estimated the effect of a simulated cap-and-trade policy to reduce added sugar in the food supply. Methods. Using nationally representative data on added-sugar content and consumption, we constructed a mathematical model of a cap-and-trade policy and compared its health implications to those of proposals to tax sugar sweetened beverages or added sugars. Results. Capping added-sugar emissions into the food supply by food manufacturers at a rate of 1% per year would be expected to reduce the prevalence of obesity by 1.7 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.9, 2.4; a 4.6% decline) and the incidence of type 2 diabetes by 21.7 cases per 100 000 people (95% CI = 12.9, 30.6; a 4.2% decline) over 20 years, averting approximately $9.7 billion in health care spending. Racial and ethnic minorities would be expected to experience the largest declines. By comparison, equivalent price penalties through excise taxes would be expected to generate smaller health benefits. Conclusions. A cap-and-trade policy to reduce added-sugar intake may reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes to a greater extent than currently-proposed excise taxes.