Risk of developing low glomerular filtration rate or elevated serum creatinine in a screened cohort in Okinawa, Japan

There are no known predictors of renal dysfunction, particularly for a community-based screening. We evaluated the changes in serum creatinine (SCr) and glomerular filtration rate (GFR) among screenees who participated in the screening program of the Okinawa General Health Maintenance Association both in 1983 and 1993. A total of 4,662 screenees at least 30 years of age at the 1983 screening were analyzed to examine whether they developed high SCr (>= 1.4 mg/dl for men, >= 1.2 mg/dl for women) or low GFR (< 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2)). Overall, mean GFR (mean +/- SD) decreased slightly from 72.7 +/- 11.7 ml/min/1.73 m(2) to 70.8 +/- 15.0 ml/min/ 1.73 m(2). In 1983, the prevalences of high SCr and low GFR were 3.6% and 13.2%, respectively, and in 1993, they were 8.1% and 24.2%, respectively. Among the variables studied, dipstick proteinuria was the strongest predictor: the adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) was 1.282 (1.076-1.527, p < 0.01) for high SCr and 1.215 (1.116-1.322, p < 0.01) for low GFR. Dipstick proteinuria was best for detecting subjects who might develop low GFR in a screening setting. In subjects without proteinuria, systolic blood pressure was a significant predictor for low GFR (the adjusted odds ratio [95% CI] was 1.015 [1.009-1.020, p < 0.01]) and for high SCr (the adjusted odds ratio [95% CI] was 1.028 [1.016-1.040, p < 0.01]). In conclusion, the present study suggests that a dipstick urine test for proteinuria and both systolic and diastolic blood pressure are useful to identify those who are at risk of developing high SCr and low GFR and consequently end-stage renal disease.