Central Asian wild tulip conservation requires a regional approach, especially in the face of climate change

Tulips (Tulipa spp.) are one of the most widely appreciated plants worldwide, nevertheless species taxonomy and biogeography are often poorly understood. Most wild tulips inhabit the mountains of Central Asia, a recognised biodiversity hotspot, and a centre of tulip diversity. Despite the presence of several country-level endemic Tulipa species, most taxa span the borders of several nations. With no globally Red Listed tulip taxa from this region national level conservation assessments are an important resource. Nonetheless, threats posed to tulips are still inadequately understood, especially climate change, and given the trans-national nature of most species, distributional information is restricted and often misleading. Here we collate 330 species records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility with 85 newly collected records, to undertake species distribution modelling (MaxEnt) for ten native Central Asian species. This work showed that regional level models provide a much more comprehensive understanding of species' extinction risks, proportions of habitat in different countries, and limitations in protected area coverage. Furthermore, our climate modelling, the first of its kind for tulips, suggests that climate change will have a significant negative impact on the range size of all species; including those that are currently widespread. We therefore add climate change to the list of threats affecting tulip populations in Central Asia, which already includes livestock overgrazing, urbanisation, wild collection, and mining. Overall, our work shows that although national information is important, a regional approach is crucial not just for tulip conservation efforts, but likely for Central Asian plant conservation in general.