Voices from the past: economic and political vulnerabilities in the making of next generation EU

被引:51
作者
Armingeon, Klaus [1 ]
de la Porte, Caroline [2 ]
Heins, Elke [3 ]
Sacchi, Stefano [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Zurich, Dept Polit Sci, Affolternstr 56, CH-8050 Zurich, Switzerland
[2] Copenhagen Business Sch, Dept Int Econ Govt & Business, Porcelnshaven 24, DK-2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark
[3] Univ Edinburgh, Sch Social & Polit Sci, 15A George Sq, Edinburgh EH8 9LD, Midlothian, Scotland
[4] Polytech Univ Turin, Dept Management & Prod Engn, Corso Duca Abruzzi 24, I-10129 Turin, Italy
关键词
European Union; COVID-19; NGEU; Germany; Italy; The Netherlands; EUROPEAN INTEGRATION; LABOR-MARKET; POLICY; GOVERNANCE; CONDITIONALITY; REFORMS; CRISIS;
D O I
10.1057/s41295-022-00277-6
中图分类号
D0 [政治学、政治理论];
学科分类号
0302 ; 030201 ;
摘要
In this article, we show that Next Generation EU (NGEU) is mainly a response to the economic and political imbalances left over from the Eurozone crisis. It is a preemptive intervention, especially targeted at structurally weak economies with rising Euroscepticism, to avoid costly ex-post bailouts as in the Great Recession. We demonstrate, using quantitative analysis, that pre-existing vulnerabilities, rather than the impact of the pandemic, drove the allocation of NGEU resources: per capita grants largely correspond to past economic vulnerabilities, as well as to political ones. Countries most vulnerable to another adjustment by austerity after the COVID-19 economic crisis receive most resources. Also, countries with strong anti-EU sentiments are entitled to larger NGEU grants per capita. In contrast, grants are not correlated with the severity of the health crisis. Then, we show the domestic relevance of economic and political vulnerabilities through qualitative case studies of national political debates and domestic positions on NGEU in Italy, Germany and the Netherlands. Despite its innovative traits, NGEU is a politically constrained solution to address the mess from the previous decade, and as such, it is a Janus solution: promising a fresh start, but haunted by the past.
引用
收藏
页码:144 / 165
页数:22
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