A spatiotemporal analysis of tropical cyclone tracks in the Atlantic Basin and their relationship to El Nino-Southern Oscillation

There has been an enhanced focus on Atlantic tropical cyclone climatologies with the significant cyclones of the past decade and the associated loss of life and property. This study examines the geographic location of cyclone tracks and their relationship to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The average annual cyclone track latitude and longitude correlate positively with hurricane-season El Nino indices, indicating that during El Nino conditions, tropical cyclone tracks are shifted northward and eastward. June-November indices explain 11-22% and 3-11% of the variance in cyclone track latitude and longitude, respectively. Examination of the strongest and weakest El Nino years yields similar results. Higher sea level pressure over North America, a slight contraction of the Bermuda High, and a slight decrease in 500 mb heights during El Nino years helps to explain the observed northward and eastward movement of tropical cyclone tracks during El Nino years. Additionally, weaker easterly and stronger southerly winds on the western side of the North Atlantic Basin exist during El Nino years. Although future tropical cyclone track projection is beyond the scope of this research, these results may provide insight into forecast improvement and ultimately better responses for coastal communities.