Risk factors for early metachronous tumor development after endoscopic resection for early gastric cancer

Background Metachronous gastric tumor (MGT) is one of major concerns after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for early gastric cancer (EGC). Optimal follow-up strategy has not been yet well-established. The aim of this study was to identify the different clinical features of the patients according to the time interval to development of MGT. Methods Among 1,780 consecutive patients with EGC who underwent ESD between 2005 and 2014, 115 patients with MGT were retrospectively reviewed. MGT was defined as secondary gastric cancer or dysplasia detected > 1 year after initial ESD. Clinicopathological factors associated with early development of MGT were evaluated. Results The median interval to development of MGT was 37 months. In univariate analysis, the median interval to MGT was shorter if EGC lesion was non-elevated type (39.4 vs 57.0 months, p = 0.011), or synchronous primary lesion was absent (39.8 vs 51.4 months, p = 0.050). In multivariate Cox's proportional hazards analysis, the hazard ratios for early occurrence of MGT were 1.966 (95% CI: 1.141 -3.386, p = 0.015) and 1.911 (95% CI: 1.163 - 3.141, p = 0.011), respectively. There was no significant difference in overall survival after diagnosis of MGT between the early occurrence group and the late occurrence group. Conclusions Non-elevated gross type and absence of synchronous gastric tumor were independent risk factors for early development of MGT. Meticulous endoscopic inspection is especially important for the detection of MGT during the early follow-up period in patients with these initial tumor characteristics.