Toward a Country-Based Prediction Model of COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Between Disease Apex and End: Evidence From Countries With Contained Numbers of COVID-19

被引:2
作者
Gu, Tianshu [1 ,2 ]
Wang, Lishi [3 ,4 ,5 ]
Xie, Ning [6 ]
Meng, Xia [2 ]
Li, Zhijun [3 ]
Postlethwaite, Arnold [7 ]
Aleya, Lotfi [8 ]
Howard, Scott C. [9 ]
Gu, Weikuan [4 ,5 ,10 ]
Wang, Yongjun [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Tennessee, Hlth Sci Ctr, Coll Grad Hlth Sci, Memphis, TN 38163 USA
[2] Capital Med Univ, Beijing Tiantan Hosp, Dept Neurol, Beijing, Peoples R China
[3] Inner Mongolia Med Univ, Dept Basic Med, Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, Peoples R China
[4] Univ Tennessee, Hlth Sci Ctr, Dept Orthoped Surg, Memphis, TN 38163 USA
[5] Univ Tennessee, Hlth Sci Ctr, BME Campbell Clin, Memphis, TN 38163 USA
[6] Univ Louisville, Coll Business, Louisville, KY 40292 USA
[7] Univ Tennessee, Hlth Sci Ctr, Dept Med, Memphis, TN USA
[8] Bourgogne Franche Comte Univ, CNRS, Chronoenvironm Lab, UMR 6249, Besancon, France
[9] Univ Tennessee, Hlth Sci Ctr, Coll Nursing, Memphis, TN USA
[10] Memphis VA Med Ctr, Res Serv, Memphis, TN 38163 USA
关键词
coronavirus; COVID-19; mortality; pandemic; prediction; infectious disease; death; GLOBAL MORTALITY;
D O I
10.3389/fmed.2021.585115
中图分类号
R5 [内科学];
学科分类号
1002 ; 100201 ;
摘要
The complexity of COVID-19 and variations in control measures and containment efforts in different countries have caused difficulties in the prediction and modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic. We attempted to predict the scale of the latter half of the pandemic based on real data using the ratio between the early and latter halves from countries where the pandemic is largely over. We collected daily pandemic data from China, South Korea, and Switzerland and subtracted the ratio of pandemic days before and after the disease apex day of COVID-19. We obtained the ratio of pandemic data and created multiple regression models for the relationship between before and after the apex day. We then tested our models using data from the first wave of the disease from 14 countries in Europe and the US. We then tested the models using data from these countries from the entire pandemic up to March 30, 2021. Results indicate that the actual number of cases from these countries during the first wave mostly fall in the predicted ranges of liniar regression, excepting Spain and Russia. Similarly, the actual deaths in these countries mostly fall into the range of predicted data. Using the accumulated data up to the day of apex and total accumulated data up to March 30, 2021, the data of case numbers in these countries are falling into the range of predicted data, except for data from Brazil. The actual number of deaths in all the countries are at or below the predicted data. In conclusion, a linear regression model built with real data from countries or regions from early pandemics can predict pandemic scales of the countries where the pandemics occur late. Such a prediction with a high degree of accuracy provides valuable information for governments and the public.
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页数:12
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