Integrated Weather Effects on Cycling Shares, Frequencies, and Durations in Rotterdam, the Netherlands

With the increasing societal interest in climate change, health, accessibility, and liveability and subsequent policy aims to promote active transport modes over car usage, many scholars have investigated the relationship between weather and cycling. Existing studies, however, hardly address the effects of weather on cycling durations and often lack assessments of the combined effects of different meteorological variables and potential nonlinearity of these effects. Drawing on travel diary data from a panel study of 945 Greater Rotterdam respondents (the Netherlands), this paper investigates and compares the effects of different meteorological variables, singly as well as combined, on cycling frequencies, cycling durations, and the exchange between cycling and other transport modes. Results show linear negative effects of precipitation sum and wind speed and nonlinear bell-shaped effects of thermal variables on cycling and opposite effects on car usage. Out of three thermal variables investigated, mean radiant temperature (radiant heat exchange between humans and the environment) and physiological equivalent temperature (an index combining the effects of air temperature, mean radiant temperature, air humidity, and wind speed) better explain cycling behavior than just air temperature. Optimum thermal conditions for cycling were found on days with maximum air temperatures around 24 degrees C, mean radiant temperatures around 52 degrees C, and physiological equivalent temperatures around 30 degrees C. Policy and planning implications are highlighted that could reduce cyclists' exposures to disadvantageous weather conditions such as heat, precipitation, and wind, at present and in a potentially changing climate.