How well does your sampler really work?

被引:0
作者
Turner, Ryan [1 ]
Neal, Brady [2 ]
机构
[1] Uber AI Labs, New York, NY 10036 USA
[2] Univ Montreal, MILA, Montreal, PQ, Canada
来源
UNCERTAINTY IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | 2018年
关键词
CHAIN MONTE-CARLO;
D O I
暂无
中图分类号
TP18 [人工智能理论];
学科分类号
081104 ; 0812 ; 0835 ; 1405 ;
摘要
We present a data-driven benchmark system to evaluate the performance of new MCMC samplers. Taking inspiration from the COCO benchmark in optimization, we view this benchmark as having critical importance to machine learning and statistics given the rate at which new samplers are proposed. The common hand-crafted examples to test new samplers are unsatisfactory; we take a meta-learning-like approach to generate realistic benchmark examples from a large corpus of data sets and models. Surrogates of posteriors found in real problems are created using highly flexible density models including modern neural network models. We provide new insights into the real effective sample size of various samplers per unit time and the estimation efficiency of the samplers per sample. Additionally, we provide a meta-analysis to assess the predictive utility of various MCMC diagnostics and perform a nonparametric regression to combine them.
引用
收藏
页码:73 / 82
页数:10
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