Opportunities to improve the use of seasonal climate forecasts

被引：0
|
作者：
Nicholls, N [1 ]
机构：
[1] Bur Meteorol Res Ctr, Melbourne, Vic 3001, Australia
来源：
APPLICATIONS OF SEASONAL CLIMATE FORECASTING IN AGRICULTURAL AND NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS: THE AUSTRALIAN EXPERIENCE | 2000年 / 21卷
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D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
S3 [农学（农艺学）];
学科分类号：
0901 ;
摘要：
The numerous impediments obstructing the optimal use of seasonal climate forecasts are reviewed. These include Scientific problems (eg. limited skill) Inappropriate content (eg. not forecasting what users need) External constraints (eg. inability of users to change decisions) Complexity of target system (eg. the impacts of a predictable climate anomaly may be unpredictable) Communication problems (eg. confusion due to multiple forecasts) User resistance or misuse (eg. user conservatism) Cognitive biases (eg. probability illusions) Strategies to overcome these problems and thereby improve the use of seasonal climate forecasts are discussed.
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页码：309 / 327
页数：19
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