On the Attribution of a Single Event to Climate Change

被引：17

作者：

Hansen, Gerrit ^{[1
]}

Auffhammer, Maximilian ^{[2
,3
]}

Solow, Andrew R. ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

[2] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Agr & Resource Econ, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[3] Natl Bur Econ Res, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[4] Woods Hole Oceanog Inst, Woods Hole, MA 02543 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE | 2014年 / 27卷 / 22期

关键词：

Climate change; Statistics; HEAT WAVES;

D O I：

10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00399.1

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

There is growing interest in assessing the role of climate change in observed extreme weather events. Recent work in this area has focused on estimating a measure called attributable risk. A statistical formulation of this problem is described and used to construct a confidence interval for attributable risk. The resulting confidence is shown to be surprisingly wide even in the case where the event of interest is unprecedented in the historical record.

引用

页码：8297 / 8301

页数：5

共 19 条

[1] Liability for climate change [J].

Allen, M .

NATURE, 2003, 421 (6926) :891-892

[2]

[Anonymous], 1988, Journal of Appl. Probab.

[3]

[Anonymous], 1980, Point Processes

[4]

Bindoff NL, 2014, CLIMATE CHANGE 2013: THE PHYSICAL SCIENCE BASIS, P867

[5] Interval estimation for a binomial proportion - Comment - Rejoinder [J].

Brown, LD ;

Cai, TT ;

DasGupta, A ;

Agresti, A ;

Coull, BA ;

Casella, G ;

Corcoran, C ;

Mehta, C ;

Ghosh, M ;

Santner, TJ ;

Brown, LD ;

Cai, TT ;

DasGupta, A .

STATISTICAL SCIENCE, 2001, 16 (02) :101-133

[6]

Chapman DG, 1952, ANN I STAT MATH TOKY, V4, P45, DOI DOI 10.1007/BF02949788

[7] Statistical modeling of hot spells and heat waves [J].

Furrer, Eva M. ;

Katz, Richard W. ;

Walter, Marcus D. ;

Furrer, Reinhard .

CLIMATE RESEARCH, 2010, 43 (03) :191-205

[8] Climatology models for extreme hurricane winds near the United States [J].

Jagger, Thomas H. ;

Elsner, James B. .

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2006, 19 (13) :3220-3236

[9] A look at the Rule of Three [J].

Jovanovic, BD ;

Levy, PS .

AMERICAN STATISTICIAN, 1997, 51 (02) :137-139

[10] Tropical cyclones and climate change [J].

Knutson, Thomas R. ;

McBride, John L. ;

Chan, Johnny ;

Emanuel, Kerry ;

Holland, Greg ;

Landsea, Chris ;

Held, Isaac ;

Kossin, James P. ;

Srivastava, A. K. ;

Sugi, Masato .

NATURE GEOSCIENCE, 2010, 3 (03) :157-163

← 1 2 →