Modeling regression error with a mixture of Polya trees

被引:127
作者
Hanson, T [1 ]
Johnson, WO
机构
[1] Univ New Mexico, Dept Math & Stat, Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA
[2] Univ Calif Davis, Dept Stat, Davis, CA 95616 USA
关键词
accelerated failure time; Polya tree; regression;
D O I
10.1198/016214502388618843
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
We model the error distribution in the standard linear model as a mixture of absolutely continuous Polya trees constrained to have median 0. By considering a mixture, we smooth out the partitioning effects of a simple Polya tree and the predictive error density has a derivative everywhere except 0. The error distribution is centered around a standard parametric family of distributions and thus may be viewed as a generalization of standard models in which important, data-driven features, such as skewness and multimodality, are allowed. By marginalizing the Polya tree, exact inference is possible up to Markov chain Monte Carlo error.
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页码:1020 / 1033
页数:14
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