Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change: A New Frontier in a Warming World

被引：103

作者：

Swain, Daniel L. ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Singh, Deepti ^{[4
]}

Touma, Danielle ^{[5
]}

Diffenbaugh, Noah S. ^{[6
,7
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif Los Angeles, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA

[2] Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Capac Ctr Climate & Weather Extremes, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA

[3] Nat Conservancy Calif, San Francisco, CA 94143 USA

[4] Washington State Univ, Sch Environm, Vancouver, WA USA

[5] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA

[6] Stanford Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci & Woods Inst Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[7] Stanford Univ, Woods Inst Environm, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

来源：

ONE EARTH | 2020年 / 2卷 / 06期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/j.oneear.2020.05.011

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

The emerging field of extreme-event attribution (EEA) seeks to answer the question: "Has climate change influenced the frequency, likelihood, and/or severity of individual extreme events?'' Methodological advances over the past 15 years have transformed what was once an unanswerable hypothetical into a tractable scientific question-and for certain types of extreme events, the influence of anthropogenic climate change has emerged beyond a reasonable doubt. Several challenges remain, particularly those stemming from structural limitations in process-based climate models and the temporal and geographic limitations of historical observations. However, the growing use of large climate-model ensembles that capture natural climate variability, fine-scale simulations that better represent underlying physical processes, and the lengthening observational record could obviate some of these concerns in the near future. EEA efforts have important implications for risk perception, public policy, infrastructure design, legal liability, and climate adaptation in a warming world.

引用

页码：522 / 527

页数：6

共 20 条

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