Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Total Mortality in Poland

Background: According to published data the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 is underestimated between 30 and 80%. Aim: The aim of this study is to assess the impact of COVID-19 on total mortality of Poland and the Silesian voivodship. Methods: Secondary epidemiological data on COVID-19 deaths were obtained from the Ministry of Health registry and data on total mortality were gathered from the National Statistical Office and Registry Office in Poland. Three scenarios were used to estimated COVID-19 deaths: real number + an extra 30%, 60%, and 70% excess total deaths. Results: In 2020, there were 73,254, 64,584, and 67,677 excess deaths in comparison to 2017-2019, respectively. For the Silesian voivodship, it was 8339, 7946, and 8701, respectively. The total mean increase in deaths was 16% for the whole country and the Silesian voivodship. The simulation for 30% extra COVID-19 deaths gave COVID-19 mortality equal to 12.5%; n = 50,708 deaths, for extra 60%; 17.9% n = 72,866 and for extra 70%; 19.7% n = 80,251 for Poland; and 11.9% (n = 6072), 17.2% (n = 8740), 24.2% (n = 12,297), respectively, for the Silesian voivodship. Conclusions: The participation of COVID-19 in total deaths should not exceed 20% for Poland and 24% for the Silesian voivodship in 2020.