Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe:: the SCORE project

被引：3847

作者：

Conroy, RM

Pyörälä, K

Fitzgerald, AP

Sans, S

Menotti, A

De Backer, G

De Bacquer, D

Ducimetière, P

Jousilahti, P

Keil, U

Njolstad, I

Oganov, RG

Thomsen, T

Tunstall-Pedoe, H

Tverdal, A

Wedel, H

Whincup, P

Wilhelmsen, L

Graham, IM ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Royal Coll Surgeons Ireland, Dept Epidemiol & Publ Hlth Med, SCORE, Dublin 2, Ireland

[2] Univ Kuopio, FIN-70211 Kuopio, Finland

[3] Inst Hlth Studies, Catalan Dept Hlth & Social Secur, Barcelona, Spain

[4] Assoc Cardiac Res, Rome, Italy

[5] Univ Ghent, Dept Publ Hlth, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium

[6] INSERM, U258, Villejuif, France

[7] Natl Publ Hlth Inst, Dept Epidemiol & Hlth Promot, Helsinki, Finland

[8] Univ Munster, Inst Epidemiol & Social Med, D-4400 Munster, Germany

[9] Univ Tromso, Inst Community Med, Tromso, Norway

[10] Russian Minist Hlth, Natl Res Ctr Prevent Med, Moscow, Russia

[11] Glostrup Univ Hosp, Med Dept M, Ctr Prevent Med, Glostrup, Denmark

[12] Univ Dundee, Ninewells Hosp & Med Sch, Cardiovasc Epidemiol Unit, Dundee DD1 9SY, Scotland

[13] Norwegian Inst Publ Hlth, Oslo, Norway

[14] Univ Gothenburg, Sect Prevent Med, Gothenburg, Sweden

[15] Univ London St Georges Hosp, Sch Med, Dept Publ Hlth Sci, London SW17 0RE, England

来源：

EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL | 2003年 / 24卷 / 11期

关键词：

cardiovascular disease; risk factors; risk estimation; Europe;

D O I：

10.1016/S0195-668X(03)00114-3

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

Aims The SCORE project was initiated to develop a risk scoring system for use in the clinical management of cardiovascular risk in European clinical practice. Methods and results The project assembled a pool of datasets from 12 European cohort studies, mainly carried out in general population settings. There were 205 178 persons (88 080 women and 117 098 men) representing 2.7 million person years of follow-up. There were 7934 cardiovascular deaths, of which 5652 were deaths from coronary heart disease. Ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was calculated using a Weibull model in which age was used as a measure of exposure time to risk rather than as a risk factor. Separate estimation equations were calculated for coronary heart disease and for non-coronary cardiovascular disease. These were calculated for high-risk and low-risk regions of Europe. Two parallel estimation models were developed, one based on total cholesterol and the other on total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio. The risk estimations are displayed graphically in simple risk charts. Predictive value of the risk charts was examined by applying them to persons aged 45-64; areas under ROC curves ranged from 0.71 to 0.84. Conclusions The SCORE risk estimation system offers direct estimation of total fatal cardiovascular risk in a format suited to the constraints of clinical practice. (C) 2003 The European Society of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：987 / 1003

页数：17