Abe Road: Comparing Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's Leadership of his First and Second Governments

Shinzo Abe's return to office as Japanese prime minister in December 2012 offers a rare opportunity to explore how past experience shapes decision-making when leaders are given a second chance at power. There is no doubt that Abe's second term-ending with his re-election for a third term in December 2014-was more successful than his first premiership (2006-2007). What accounts for the differences between Abe's two premierships? In answering this question, I employ an interactionist approach to analyse personal political leadership in institutional and situational contexts. Although previously used by scholars to compare different leaders, I utilise this approach to identify changes in Abe's leadership between his first and second administrations. I conclude that changes in the institutional and situational contexts of his leadership better explain Abe's second-term successes than developments in his leadership skills. I further conclude that Abe's predominance in his second term calls into question the prevailing view of the Japanese prime minister as institutionally weak.