Potential climate change impacts on Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus L. in Ireland

Climate change has been identified as a global threat to Arctic char Salvelinus alpinus L. populations. Bayesian statistical models were used to identify important physical and ecological factors explaining Arctic char presence and persistence in Irish lakes. Maximum lake depth and the presence of mixed fish communities (i.e. including non-salmonid fish species) were the most important drivers of Arctic char presence. There was a 75% probability that an Irish lake would contain Arctic char when maximum depth exceeded 40 m, if only a salmonid community was present. However, the required depth increased to 57 m when a mixed fish community (e.g. pike, perch or roach) was present. Similar variables explained char persistence, with surviving Arctic char populations being more likely in lakes with greater maximum depth and fewer non-salmonid fish species. Tested temperature covariates were not important in explaining Arctic char presence or persistence in Irish lakes. A risk analysis was undertaken to identify which Arctic char lakes are vulnerable to colonisation by thermally plastic mixed fish communities due to flooding. Results indicated that 32 out of 45 lakes were not at any risk from the colonisation of thermally plastic mixed fish communities and 13 lakes had some level of risk.