Agent-Based Model of Hosting Communities' Perceptions of Water and Wastewater Infrastructure during the German Refugee Crisis

In 2016, Germany received approximately 50% of the 1.2 million asylum applications in the European Union. The applicants represented a population influx of displaced people that were accommodated primarily in urban settings, creating challenges for engineers and managers who needed to meet the new water and wastewater demands of the displaced persons without disrupting services to preexisting residents. To achieve this, local authorities and engineers had to consider temporary or permanent alterations to existing water and wastewater infrastructure-changes that could provoke opposition from a hosting community, depending on their perception of the changes. In this study, a modeling framework is proposed that allows decision makers to account for hosting communities' perceptions of alternatives for providing water and wastewater infrastructure services to displaced persons. The framework uses an agent-based model that is enabled by publicly available information, a survey deployed to German communities, and interviews with stakeholders involved in the accommodation of displaced persons in Germany. Our results indicate that alternatives used by local authorities did not always align with community-supported alternatives. To minimize such misalignments, we recommend that local authorities, early on in developing infrastructure alternatives, take into account the perceptions of hosting communities. Ultimately, the proposed framework promotes the sustainable provision of water and wastewater infrastructure to displaced persons.