Technology Trajectories and the Selection of Optimal R&D Project Sequences

被引：11

作者：

van Bommel, Ties ^{[1
,2
]}

Mahieu, Ronald J. ^{[1
,3
]}

Nijssen, Edwin J. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Eindhoven Univ Technol, Dept Ind Engn & Innovat Sci, NL-5600 MB Eindhoven, Netherlands

[2] Philips NV, NL-5656 AE Eindhoven, Netherlands

[3] Tilburg Univ, Dept Econometr & Operat Res, NL-5037 AB Tilburg, Netherlands

来源：

IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT | 2014年 / 61卷 / 04期

关键词：

Affordable loss; capability development; inter-project learning; managing R&D projects; real options; sensitivity analyses; technology trajectory; REAL OPTIONS; PROGRAMMING APPROACH; FLEXIBILITY; PRODUCT; INVESTMENTS; UNCERTAINTY; MANAGEMENT; VALUATION; RISK;

D O I：

10.1109/TEM.2014.2349554

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Given a set of R&D projects drawing on the same underlying technology, a technology trajectory refers to the order in which projects are executed. Due to their technological interdependence, the successful execution of one project can increase a firm's technological capability, and help to efficiently and effectively develop other projects from this set. In this paper, we present a model for determining the optimal sequence for performing such projects. Based on Huchzermeier and Loch's real-option value model, we demonstrate that accounting for interproject learning and discount rates has: 1) a positive effect on the maximum option value that different project sequences can achieve; and 2) the maximum value of the technology trajectory is particularly sensitive to the selection of the first project.

引用

页码：669 / 680

页数：12

共 31 条

[1]

Amram M., 1999, REAL OPTIONS

[2] Applying real options analysis to assess cleaner energy development strategies [J].