On the use of total aerobic spore bacteria to make treatment decisions due to Cryptosporidium risk at public water system wells

Spore reduction can be used as a surrogate measure of Cryptosporidium natural filtration efficiency. Estimates of log10 (log) reduction were derived from spore measurements in paired surface and well water samples in Casper Wyoming and Kearney Nebraska. We found that these data were suitable for testing the hypothesis (Ho) that the average reduction at each site was 2 log or less, using a one-sided Student's t-test. After establishing data quality objectives for the test (expressed as tolerable Type I and Type II error rates), we evaluated the test's performance as a function of the (a) true log reduction, (b) number of paired samples assayed and (c) variance of observed log reductions. We found that 36 paired spore samples are sufficient to achieve the objectives over a wide range of variance, including the variances observed in the two data sets. We also explored the feasibility of using smaller numbers of paired spore samples to supplement bioparticle counts for screening purposes in alluvial aquifers, to differentiate wells with large volume surface water induced recharge from wells with negligible surface water induced recharge. With key assumptions, we propose a normal statistical test of the same hypothesis (Ho), but with different performance objectives. As few as six paired spore samples appear adequate as a screening metric to supplement bioparticle counts to differentiate wells in alluvial aquifers with large volume surface water induced recharge. For the case when all available information (including failure to reject Ho based on the limited paired spore data) leads to the conclusion that wells have large surface water induced recharge, we recommend further evaluation using additional paired biweekly spore samples.