Polarized business cycles

被引:57
作者
Azzimonti, Marina [1 ]
Talbert, Matthew [2 ]
机构
[1] Fed Reserve Bank Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA 19106 USA
[2] Univ Texas Austin, Austin, TX 78712 USA
关键词
Real business cycle; Economic policy uncertainty; Polarization; Political stability; Time consistency; INVESTMENT; POLICY;
D O I
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2014.07.001
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
Four stylized facts motivate this paper: (i) business cycle movements are wider in emerging countries (EC) than in developed ones; (ii) EC experience greater economic policy uncertainty; (iii) EC are more polarized and less politically stable; and (iv) EPU is positively related to political polarization. A standard real business cycle model augmented to incorporate political polarization, a 'polarized business cycle' (PBC) model, is shown to be consistent with these facts. We first derive our results analytically, and then quantify the effects of a permanent increase in polarization to the US economy. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:47 / 61
页数:15
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