The Predictive Value of Preoperative Health-Related Quality-of-Life Scores on Postoperative Patient-Reported Outcome Scores in Lumbar Spine Surgery

Study Design: A single-center, retrospective cohort study. Objective: To predict patient-reported outcomes (PROs) using preoperative health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) scores by quantifying the correlation between them, so as to aid selection of surgical candidates and preoperative counselling. Methods: All patients who underwent single-level elective lumbar spine surgery over a 2-year period were divided into 3 diagnosis groups: spondylolisthesis, spinal stenosis, and disc herniation. Patient characteristics and health scores (Oswestry Low Back Pain and Disability Index [ODI], EQ-5D, and Short Form-36 version 2 [SF-36v2]) were collected at 6 and 24 months and compared between the 3 diagnosis groups. Multivariate modelling was performed to investigate the predictive value of each parameter, particularly preoperative ODI and EQ-5D, on postoperative ODI and EQ-5D scores for all the patients. Results: ODI and EQ-5D at 6 and 24 months improved significantly for all patients, especially in the disc herniation group, compared to the baseline. The magnitude of improvement in ODI and EQ-5D was predictable using preoperative ODI, EQ-5D, and SF-36v2 Mental Component Score. At 6 months, 1-point baseline ODI predicts for 0.7-point increase in changed ODI, and a 0.01-point increase in baseline EQ-5D predicts for 0.01-point decrease in changed EQ-5D score. At 24 months, 1-point baseline ODI predicts for 1-point increase in changed ODI, and a 0.01-point increase in baseline EQ-5D predicts for 0.009-point decrease in changed EQ-5D. A younger age is shown to be a positive predictor of ODI at 24 months. Conclusions: Poorer baseline health scores predict greater improvement in postoperative PROs at 6 and 24 months after the surgery. HRQoL scores can be used to decide on surgery and in preoperative counselling.