Targeted Vaccine Allocation Could Increase the COVID-19 Vaccine Benefits Amidst Its Lack of Availability: A Mathematical Modeling Study in Indonesia

With a limited number of vaccines and healthcare capacity shortages, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, vaccination programs should seek the most efficient strategy to reduce the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemics. This study aims at assessing several scenarios of delivering the vaccine to people in Indonesia. We develop a model for several scenarios of delivering vaccines: without vaccination, fair distribution, and targeted distribution to five and eight districts with the highest COVID-19 incidence in West Java, one of the most COVID-19-affected regions in Indonesia. We calculate the needs of vaccines and healthcare staff for the program, then simulate the model for the initial 4-month and one-year scenarios. A one-year vaccination program would require 232,000 inoculations per day by 4833 vaccinators. Targeted vaccine allocation based on the burden of COVID-19 cases could benefit the COVID-19 vaccination program by lowering at least 5000 active cases. The benefits would increase by improving the number of vaccines and healthcare staff. Amidst lacking available vaccines, targeted vaccine allocation based on the burden of COVID-19 cases could increase the benefit of the COVID-19 vaccination program but still requires progressive efforts to improve healthcare capacity and vaccine availability for optimal protection for people.